Getting shipping companies to return to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal could take many months and is likely to require more than airstrikes against the Houthis, according to a New York Times analysis.
For more than a year, ocean carriers have overwhelmingly avoided the Red Sea, sending ships around Africa's southern tip to get from Asia to Europe, a voyage that is some 3,500 nautical miles and 10 days longer.
After the U.S. strikes targeting Houthi rebel’s military sites, Maersk , a shipping line based in Copenhagen, Denmark said it was still not ready to go back. "Prioritizing crew safety and supply chain certainty and predictability, we will continue to sail around Africa until safe passage through the area is considered more permanent," a spokesperson for the company said in a statement.
"It's either a full degradation of their capabilities or there is some type of deal," Vincent Clerc, the CEO of Maersk, a shipping line based in Copenhagen, Denmark, said on a statement.
MSC, another large shipping line, said that "to guarantee the safety of our seafarers and to ensure consistency and predictability of service for our customers," it, too, would continue sending ships around Africa.
It is not clear how long it might take the United States to decisively quell the Houthis, or if that goal is even achievable.
Lt. Gen. Alexus G. Grynkewich, director of operations for the Joint Staff, said the latest attacks had "a much broader set of targets" than strikes during the Biden administration. He also questioned the Houthis' capabilities.
But Middle East experts said the Houthis had shown they could resist much larger forces and act independently of their Iranian patrons.
"A military solution alone, particularly one that is focused on airstrikes, is unlikely to be sufficient to defeat the Houthi by permanently halting their attack activity," said Jack Kennedy, head of country risk for the Middle East and North Africa at S&P Global Market Intelligence.
Ships have not rushed back in part because executives fear that they might have to make expensive and abrupt changes to their operations if the Red Sea became dangerous again.