A sustained U.S. assault would pose serious challenges for the Houthi rebels, but the Houthis’ control of a large part of Yemen and the mountainous landscape makes them able to absorb an aerial campaign, according to a Foreign Policy Magazine analysis.
Burcu Ozcelik, a senior research fellow for Middle East security and Baraa Shiban, an associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute thought that “while the fighting power and military arsenal of other Iran-backed proxies in the so-called axis of resistance, Hamas and Hezbollah, have been eroded significantly, the Houthis have survived relatively unscathed”.
They added that shift in U.S. policy under the Trump administration, from targeted strikes to a broader, more aggressive campaign, marks a significant escalation reflects a hardening stance against the Houthis, moving beyond containment to active disruption of their capabilities.
In early March, the U.S. State Department re-designated the Houthis as a foreign terrorist organization, imposing sanctions on key financial operatives.
By conducting the strikes, the United States is supporting the interests of regional allies that are in trouble stemming from persistent Houthi armed politics and warmongering in Yemen and across its borders.
The complicating factor is that the Houthis are far more than a group of thugs or ragtag army of bandits. Instead, acting as a rebel governance movement, the Houthis command a war economy that allows them to profit from illegal smuggling of commodities that range from fuel to cigarettes, while extracting tax revenues and stamp duties as a de facto state-like entity in Sanaa and northern Yemen, where it claims political authority.
It is unclear how far the Trump administration is willing to go in its current military campaign. While the Houthi attacks are focused on the maritime routes, the problem is essentially a land problem. The Houthi control along the west coast of Yemen is what makes the attacks more decisive and highly disruptive.
Most observers agree that a ground operation by U.S. forces is very unlikely, which means there is a clear limitation to how much the U.S. can achieve through military means alone. The Houthis’ control of a large part of Yemen and the mountainous landscape makes them able to absorb an aerial campaign.
However, if these attacks continue with the same pace for a sustained period, this will motivate the Houthi opponents to start capitalizing on the Houthis’ losses and their inability to move forces freely between the different front lines.
The economic pressure the Houthis are facing will also make it hard to mobilize fighters and finance a new round of conflict. The Houthis realize they are currently at a disadvantage but are counting on the United States losing interest over the course of a protracted military campaign.
In other words, America’s own limitation is what the Houthis will count on to avoid a collapse similar to the Assad regime and Hezbollah.