For more than nine months, the United States has been engaged in an open-ended — and congressionally unauthorized — military campaign against Yemen’s Houthi rebels. who began attacking shipping vessels transiting the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb Strait in November 2023.
In response, Washington launched a retaliatory campaign in the hopes of stopping such attacks, constituting what U.S. Navy officials describe as the most intense running sea battle the United States has faced since World War II. The problem, however, is that it’s not working.
Washington’s approach to the Houthis is the epitome of strategic malpractice. It won’t work, costs too much, jeopardizes the lives of American service members stationed in the region to protect primarily foreign vessels, and risks further destabilizing Yemen as well as the broader region.
There are three main problems with Washington’s current Houthi strategy.
First, it is devoid of concrete and achievable political objectives while burdening American taxpayers with inordinate costs. Since November 2023, the Houthis have conducted roughly 200 drone and missile attacks targeting commercial and military vessels in the Red Sea, sinking two vessels and killing at least three sailors. In turn, the United States reached for its usual Middle East playbook — military force — spearheading Operation Prosperity Guardian in December 2023, and Operation Poseidon Archer in January 2024.
According to U.S. officials, these efforts are meant to “restore deterrence.” The United States has already shot down over 150 Houthi drones and missiles.
Compared to the Houthis’ missiles and drones — each costing around $2,000— the U.S. Navy’s missiles used to shoot down these projectiles cost American taxpayers millions of dollars. So far, Washington has spent over $1 billion on munitions to strike the Houthis and intercept incoming missiles and drones.
Yet, these efforts have failed to deter the Houthis, nor are they likely to. Put simply, they see the benefits of conducting these attacks — namely, the political benefit of brandishing their defense of the Palestinian cause — as far outweighing the costs being imposed by the United States.
In fact, the majority of the attacks perpetrated by the Houthis happened after the United States and its partners began their retaliatory campaign, showing plainly that U.S. efforts have failed to deter further violence.
The U.S. is also unlikely to considerably degrade the Houthi’s capabilities to the point that they can no longer attack vessels transiting the Red Sea.
Rear Admiral George Wikoff, the U.S. Naval commander in charge of Operation Prosperity Guardian, noted in February that the group “has not been deterred.”
Though the Houthis’ attacks have disrupted global shipping and freedom of navigation through the Red Sea, America’s tit-for-tat military engagement has not resolved this issue.
Commercial shipping traffic through the Red Sea has decreased considerably as a result of the Houthis’ attacks.
There has been a significant effort to re-route these vessels — the majority of which are bound for Europe — which has led to increased shipping costs and some delays, namely for European vessels and consumers.
However, this does not constitute a death knell for the global economy. The greatest impact has been on the profit margins of certain companies due to higher fuel costs and increased insurance premiums. But America’s military campaign is arguably making the situation worse, fueling the conflict and resulting in more ships coming under fire from the Houthis.
Second, continued military exchanges between the United States and the Houthis risks further destabilizing an already war-torn Yemen.
In April 2022, the U.N. mediated a two-month ceasefire between the parties and, despite having formally expired, the truce has largely held, with both sides reaping the benefits in avoiding a resurgence of fighting: Saudi Arabia desires a swift exit from a war it has lost, while the Houthis wish to consolidate their position in Yemen as the country’s preeminent political and military force.
However, the Houthis used the aftermath of Hamas’ October 7 attacks to challenge Israel and the United States amid growing international outcry over the war in Gaza. This has allowed the Houthis to further consolidate their image as the face of the Yemeni state, while also deflecting criticism away from their own autocratic rule.
U.N.-led discussions to end this disastrous conflict are now at a standstill, hindered by ongoing military exchanges between the United States and the Houthis. Continued U.S. military action against the group risks jeopardizing the fragile, tacit, truce between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis while also threatening to compound Yemen’s economic and humanitarian crisis.
Finally, the conflict between the United States and the Houthis risks exacerbating growing regional tensions, pushing the Middle East toward region-wide war. In the almost 11 months since Israel’s war in Gaza began, the Middle East has seen a surge in military escalation stretching across the region. Current hostilities between the Houthis and the United States are rooted in this context.
There are no vital U.S. national interests at stake in Yemen that justify this level of American military involvement, or the billions of dollars of U.S. taxpayer money being squandered.
Instead, the best option is for Washington to end its aimless tit-for-tat exchanges with the Houthis and recognize that its emphatic embrace of Israel’s war in Gaza is destabilizing the broader region to the detriment of U.S. interests.
A ceasefire in Gaza holds the best chance of ending, or at least considerably suppressing, the attacks by Houthis as well as rising tensions across the Middle East.
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