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US intelligence assesses Houthis in Yemen in talks to provide weapons to al-Shabaab in Somalia, officials say

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02:49 2024/06/12
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US intelligence has learned of discussions between Houthi rebels in Yemen to provide weapons to the Somali militant group al-Shabaab, in what three American officials described as a worrying development that threatens to further destabilize an already violent region.

Officials are now searching for evidence that Houthi weapons have been delivered to Somalia, and are trying to work out whether Iran, which provides some military and financial support to the Houthis, is involved in the agreement.

The US has been warning countries in the region about this possible cooperation in recent weeks, according to a senior administration official, and African countries have also begun to proactively bring it up with the US to raise their concerns and get more information.

“This is a pretty active area of conversation that we’re having with countries on both sides of the Red Sea,” this person said. “And it’s being viewed with a considerable seriousness.”

It’s not a natural alliance for the two groups, which are divided by sectarianism and are not known to have had a relationship in the past. But they are separated by only a single body of water — the strategically significant Gulf of Aden — and they both consider the United States as a top enemy.

The intelligence raises the alarming possibility that a marriage of convenience could make things worse both in Somalia and in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, where the Houthis have launched regular attacks on commercial shipping and US military assets since the war in Gaza began.

A potential deal could offer a new stream of financing for the Houthis, at a time when US officials say there are signs that the group’s primary patron, Iran, has some concerns about the group’s attack strategy. “Being able to sell some weapons would bring them much needed income,” the senior administration official said.

For al-Shabaab, it could provide access to a new source of weapons — including potentially drones — that are far more sophisticated than their current arsenal and could offer the group the ability to strike US targets.

There has been some routine smuggling of both small arms and commercial material between different groups in Yemen and Somalia for years. But a weapons agreement between al-Shabaab and the Houthis would be something new, according to US officials.

Any form of military cooperation between the Houthis and al-Shabaab could also undermine an informal, and fragile, ceasefire between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia that has held since 2022, the senior administration official said. And it would “definitely” go against the spirit of a proposed UN roadmap for a more lasting peace, the official said.

Officials say at this point, they aren’t sure what kinds of weapons the Houthis might provide to al-Shabaab.

Right now, the Somali group generally only has access to rockets, mortars and homemade IEDs that it has used in its fight against the Somali government — deadly, but relatively smaller arms. The Houthis, by comparison, have weaponized drones, including underwater drones. They also have short-range ballistic missiles. There is a sense that the deal would cover “bigger kit” than just rockets and mortars, said one US official, but beyond that, the intelligence is murky.

The US has about 480 US troops in Somalia, according to a US official. The US has continued to carry out counterterrorism strikes against both al-Shabaab and ISIS targets in Somalia throughout the Biden administration.

One major question for US intelligence officials is the degree of involvement Iran might have in the arrangement. There is no direct evidence yet, officials said, but the US is still looking. It fits the pattern of broader Iranian efforts to widen the front against the US and the west by directly or indirectly providing arms to proxy groups.

“That’s something we definitely have our eyes on,” the senior administration official said.

 

جميع الحقوق محفوظة © قناة اليمن اليوم الفضائية
جميع الحقوق محفوظة © قناة اليمن اليوم الفضائية