An article published by Creative Commons* suggested that the U.S. is reportedly considering strikes against Houthi rebels in Yemen that have been menacing commercial ships in the Red Sea.
It added The Pentagon has a range of options for missile attacks on Houthi positions and has moved the Dwight D. Eisenhower carrier strike group into position off the coast of Yemen.
The author of the article found that failing to deter Houthi rebels from attacking commercial shipping in the Red Sea, the second-best option is to increase naval presence to patrol the Red Sea.
Since November 2023, the Iran-backed Houthis have conducted several attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea. Their attacks have increased navigation risks in the region and affected risk perception in the maritime sector. The economic and geopolitical implications are felt much beyond the coast of Yemen.
The world economy is strongly dependent on the global maritime supply chain. About 80% of international trade by volume is transported by sea. This figure rises to 95% for the UK. From mobile phones to clothes and from coffee to sugar, the manufactured items we use and the food we consume on a daily basis have been, at least in part, transported by sea.
Intentional disruptions of the maritime supply chain by pirates or terrorists pose a challenge that goes beyond simple logistics.
Attacks on civilian shipping directly affect insurance premiums and deter operators from transiting through certain areas for financial and security reasons. The private maritime sector is not immune to geopolitics, and higher insurance premiums or the cost of rerouting ships eventually trickle down to consumers.
Politically motivated groups, including terrorist organizations, pose a different type of threat. Their primary objective is not to make money but to increase the visibility of their organization, or to exercise leverage on other political actors at the regional or global level.
This is achieved by conducting attacks that increase risk and risk perception in a given area, disrupt maritime supply chains, and have disproportionate impacts on the geopolitical situation.
The Houthi rebels are politically motivated. Their attacks aim to have an impact on the war in Gaza. Their location along a major sea lane of communication in the Red Sea gives them an asymmetrical advantage when it comes to attacking commercial shipping.
Yemen’s location on the Bab el-Mandeb (Gate of Lamentation) strait at the southern entrance to the Red Sea makes it a key pressure point for disrupting shipping.
Major shipping companies and operators, from Maersk to BP, have paused operations in the Red Sea. Oil prices are expected to rise.
Consequently, Houthis’ attacks affect commerce and the economy much beyond the Red Sea. But options to address the threat are limited.
Failing to deter Houthis from attacking commercial shipping, the second-best option is to increase naval presence to patrol the Red Sea. But this is not without political risks, since a further militarization of the crisis might be used by the Houthis and others to inflame the geopolitical situation in Yemen and in the whole region.
As part of what it has called “Operation Prosperity Guardian”, the US has assembled an international naval task force – including UK naval assets – which will have capabilities to intercept missiles and defend commercial shipping in case of an attack.
But, with a limited number of warships to patrol a large area and with early warning time for missile attacks limited due to the proximity of Yemen, it will be difficult to successfully defend against absolutely all attacks and prevent any damage from occurring.
* https://rb.gy/33c8ln